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Showing posts with label 經濟 Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 經濟 Economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

[明報 Mingpao], !即時 Instant News, 邱騰華:政府1億元現金鼓勵予旅行社 每名入境團旅客120元 (12:00)

商務及經濟發展局長邱騰華今(23日)見記者,表示會為旅遊業業界提供1億元的現金鼓勵,將向每間旅行社分別提供每名入境及出境過夜的旅客120元及100元,上限500名旅客,每間旅行社最多可獲6萬元,計劃由今年11月至明年3月為止,估計85萬名旅客受惠。

邱騰華表示,希望透過短期措施令業界可繼續營運,以保住旅遊業,並間接令其他行業受惠。

https://news.mingpao.com/ins/%e6%b8%af%e8%81%9e/article/20191023/s00001/1571802698791/%e9%82%b1%e9%a8%b0%e8%8f%af-%e6%94%bf%e5%ba%9c1%e5%84%84%e5%85%83%e7%8f%be%e9%87%91%e9%bc%93%e5%8b%b5%e4%ba%88%e6%97%85%e8%a1%8c%e7%a4%be-%e6%af%8f%e5%90%8d%e5%85%a5%e5%a2%83%e5%9c%98%e6%97%85%e5%ae%a2120%e5%85%83

Friday, October 18, 2019

[BBC], !即時 Instant News, China economy: Third quarter growth misses expectations

China's economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the third quarter as it struggled with a US-led trade war and softer domestic demand.

In the three months to September, the economy expanded 6% from a year earlier, official figures showed.

The result fell just short of expectations for 6.1% growth for the period.

The slowdown comes despite government efforts to support the economy, including measures such as tax cuts.

The latest figures mark a further loss of momentum in the world's second largest economy, which had already seen growth languishing at its slowest pace in around three decades.

The rate remained within the government's target range for annual growth of between 6% and 6.5%.

China's economic slowdown: How bad is it?
A quick guide to the US-China trade war
How China became the world's 'economic miracle'
The strength of the Chinese economy is closely watched as slowing growth can have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

The country has become a key engine of growth in recent decades. Its healthy demand for a range of products, from commodities to machinery, has supported growth around the world.

Some analysts worry that a sharp slowdown in China could hurt an already sluggish world economy and increase the risk of a recession.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said pressure on the Chinese economy "should intensify in the coming months".

He said more intervention by policymakers to support the economy was likely "but it will take time for this to put a floor beneath economic growth".

What challenges does China face?
China has been fighting a trade war with the US for the past year, which has created uncertainty for businesses and consumers.

At the same time, it faces domestic challenges including a swine fever outbreak that has fuelled inflation and hit consumer spending.This week the International Monetary Fund trimmed its 2019 growth forecast for China to 6.1% from 6.2% due to the long-running trade dispute and slowing domestic demand.

But there have been some signs of progress toward resolving the trade battle, with the US and China reaching a "phase one deal" earlier this month.

US postpones next tariff hike after China trade talks
The government has sought to help the economy through tax cuts and by taking measures to boost liquidity in the financial system.

Still, some analysts say the government has become more cautious in providing stimulus amid growing concerns about China's rising debt pile.



Any analysis of China's economic data has to come with a caveat: Many economists believe the actual figures are much lower than what we are told, but it's the trajectory of growth and signalling from the government that you should pay attention to.

The fact that the growth figures have come in below market expectations indicate that China's economy is hurting more than many thought.

There were signs from China that these numbers were going to be worrying. Earlier this week, Premier Li Keqiang made the unusual move to warn local officials that they must do "everything" to make sure they hit growth targets for this year.

China's economy is being hit on three fronts: The US-led trade war, slowing demand at home and rising domestic challenges including the outbreak of swine fever that has dealt a huge blow to its pork farmers. It's also pushed up prices for consumers.

China's slowdown is nothing new. But these challenges pose new headaches for policymakers who are trying to manage the slowdown. The country's political stability depends on economic security - and over the last forty years, that's what the Communist Party has delivered. They're under pressure to keep that contract.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50092788



[Reuters], !即時 Instant News, 焦点:中国三季度GDP增速触六创纪录新低 下行压力犹在政策重在落实

路透北京10月18日 - 尽管中国9月经济运行显现一丝改善的迹象,但在内外需疲软的背景下,三季度GDP同比增速还是超预期降至6%的纪录低点,且未来一两个季度,受制于全球经济环境,下行压力恐难以缓解。

分析人士对四季度是否破六各持己见,总体而言,鉴于前三季GDP增速已达6.2%,今年年内逆周期政策大幅加码的可能性不大,更注重已有政策的落实,并为明年预留更多弹药。

“四季度经济增速难以明显回升,内外需求明显反弹的可能性不大。”交通银行金融研究中心首席研究员唐建伟表示,虽然9月数据有翘尾的表现,但经济仍延续了上半年下行的态势。

他指出,经济下行的压力还是不小的,短期要实现“六稳”,逆周期宏观政策还是要适度发力。财政落实落细减税降费还是有必要的,货币政策偏松调整有必要也有空间,不管是直接降息,还是引导LPR报价下调,要真正降低实体经济的融资成本。

中国国家统计局周五公布,今年三季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长6%,不及路透调查预估中值6.1%,这是自1992年有纪录以来的季度GDP最低值;前三季度GDP同比增长6.2%。

统计局在国新办发布会的新闻稿显示,前三季度固定资产投资同比增长5.4%,与路透调查预估中值一致,其中民间投资同比增长4.7%。

9月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%,远高于路透调查预估中值5%,前三季度增速为5.6%;9月社会消费品零售总额同比增7.8%,与路透调查预估中值一致,前三季度消费同比增速为8.2%。

tmsnrt.rs/2nZB4Pi

tmsnrt.rs/2J09o3T

“总的来看,尽管外部环境比较严峻复杂,但国内有力的支撑因素比较多。下一步经济保持平稳运行还是有条件、有支撑的。”国家统计局发言人毛盛勇在发布会上表示。

他指出,中国的经济增速放在全球看,仍是一个高增长,主要宏观经济指标保持在合理区间,就业形势总体平稳,前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入实际和名义增速分别为6.1%和8.8%,与经济增速基本同步。

毛盛勇强调,下一阶段,服务业的支撑能力在不断地增强,消费潜力不断释放,转型升级的态势持续发展,减税降费、增发地方专项债等政策效果在显现,且后续还会继续显现。“今年四季度经济保持平稳趋势是有保证的。”

统计局数据显示,今年前三季度,最终消费支出的贡献率为60.5%,资本形成的贡献率为19.8%,包含货物和服务的净出口贡献率19.6%。

9月全国城镇调查失业率为5.2%,31个大城市城镇调查失业率为5.2%,均与上月一致。前三季度全国城镇新增就业1,097万人,完成全年目标任务的99.7%。

亚洲股市在中国公布GDP数据后回吐涨幅,MSCI明晟亚太地区(除日本)指数转为下跌0.17%,中国股市沪综指.SSEC早盘下跌0.59%。人民币兑美元即期早盘微升,数据总体在预期范围内,对汇价影响暂有限;不过有尚可的工业增加值等其他数据对冲,银行间债市主要现券未能延续上日午后向好势头而转弱,金融期货交易所国债主力合约也小幅下行。

**是否有破六可能?**

对于中国经济的走势,分析人士略有分歧,一些认为未来一两个季度下行压力会加大,甚至出现破六可能,但另一些则比较乐观,预计逆周期政策会显现效果,从社融等数据看政策已开始发力,四季度经济有望企稳。

“尽管三季度GDP触及6%的底线,但从全年来看,完成年初制定的6-6.5%的政策目标问题不大,而且考虑到去年同期基数较低的影响,尽管下行压力仍大,四季度完成6%的增长问题不大。”中海晟融经济学家张一指出。

他称,房地产投资仍然是投资增长的主要动力,在限制开发贷之后,并叠加商品房销售下降的影响,房地产投资逐步下行是一个趋势。在基建投资难以大幅上升的背景下,防止地产投资增速失速是明年经济是否企稳的关键点。

前三季度的房地产投资和销售数据仍保持了韧性。房地产投资同比保持两位数增长,销售面积略下降但亦较前八月略有改善,统计局发言人毛盛勇称,房地产的发展,总的来看是平稳、健康、有序的。

tmsnrt.rs/2MPtHT0

中国黄金集团首席经济学家万喆则表示,总体来看还是经济还是运行平稳并没有出现大起大落,但是下行压力仍在的趋势没有变,这包括国内需求的疲弱以及全球经济下行趋势的共同作用。

“未来两三季度还是值得警惕的,因为经济下行的趋势在一段时间内还是不会改变的,尤其在房地产开始有了出清以后,要看到对经济增速的影响。目前国内的政策是有预留空间的。”她说道

华宝信托宏观分析师聂文亦认为,下行压力可能在未来两三季度都会存在,预计阶段性会有破六出现,中央对经济下行的容忍度提升。不依赖房地产和外需,GDP增速中枢或下行到5-5.5%。但他也指出,政策面预计保持目前的节奏,针对企业的优惠措施会更多些,基建会落实得更好些,货币政策侧重于LPR引导市场利率下行。

华泰证券的李超等表示,6.0%是今明两年的政策底线,后续逆周期调控政策将加码。结合金融数据来看,企业中长期贷款持续两个月好转,其中基础设施和制造业的贷款增速明显回升,未来政策性银行逆周期调节可能是加大对基建融资的支持,预计将呈现制造业投资稳、基建回升的组合。

“我们测算,基建投资增速回升到8.5%,就可以对冲房地产投资增速下滑到5.0%的负面拖累,在现有政策组合下基建8.5%的增速并非难事,因而对经济无需过度悲观。”他们指出。

**政策重在落实**

尽管三季度GDP略低于预期且后续展望不容乐观,但分析人士多认为目前逆周期政策并没有大幅加码的必要,在中美贸易谈判取得进展、外部环境略有改善之际,应更侧重于已有政策的落实。

海通证券宏观分析师姜超等指出,三季度经济继续回落,但主要是受7、8月持续低迷拖累,从9月当月数据看,工业、投资、消费增速全面反弹。而10月以来的中观高频数据显示,终端需求好坏参半,工业生产继续改善,指向经济回暖态势有望延续。

他们称,总理在经济形势座谈会上强调,要增强底线思维,落实好已出台的各项政策;在国务院常务会议上强调,要确保为企业减负担、为发展增动能。“在国内经济出现好转迹象、外部压力有所缓和的背景下,稳增长政策重在落实和确保,而非加码。”

中海晟融的张一表示,从目前来看,由于就业压力不大,政策制定者短期之内进一步出台更多的刺激政策概率不大,政策还是以稳为主。需要考虑的是明年宏观政策布局,在去杠杆和稳增长之间如何平衡协调。

他称,预期是决定经济走势的关键。一方面,只有预期稳了,消费才能稳;另一方面,只有预期稳了,企业才敢投资,民间投资增速才能逐步回升。因此,很难判断一季度经济走势,不确定性主要来自中美贸易谈判第一阶段完成之后的下一步走向以及宏观政策的走向。

交行的唐建伟指出,财政落实落细减税降费还是有必要的,可以跟企业新增就业和创新性投资等挂钩,切实发挥减税降费支持实体企业的作用。

货币政策偏松调整有必要也有空间。相对于降至6%增速的经济基本面来说,大型商业银行13%的存款准备金率明显偏高了,适度下调存准率是必要的;另外,现在通胀是个“假通胀”、是“猪通胀”,央行不应该受到结构性通胀的干扰,核心通胀现在是通缩的,PPI降幅还在扩大,央行更应该通过适当的政策来降低企业的融资成本。

“不管是直接降息,还是引导LPR报价下调,反正是要真正降低实体经济的融资成本。利率是个可选的工具,不能排除。”他称,长期来看,更重要的是加快改革,通过改革来释放新动能,这样才能减缓经济下行的速度,实现真正的高质量发展。

招商证券的宏观分析师张一平等则认为,导致三季度GDP增速回落的主要因素在四季度难以改善,投资增速和出口增速将继续恶化,而消费只是低位回稳。因此,四季度GDP增速的形势不容乐观。逆周期调节力度加大,除了增加投资需求外,还是要在刺激消费上想办法。

短期内,他们认为逆周期调节政策的主要抓手还是财政政策,专项债、政策性金融都将是基建投资资金的主要来源。受通胀压力的影响,货币政策难以在价格方面有放松,但是定向降准等数量放松不会缺席。

中美贸易谈判最新取得新进展。白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛周四表示,在上周宣布达成第一阶段贸易协议后,中美双方在协议文本具体内容磋商方面取得进展,或许会于下月在智利举行的亚太经合组织(APEC)论坛上签署协议。

中国国务院总理李克强周一表示,今年经济运行总体平稳,但当前经济下行压力加大,实体经济困难突出。要用好宏观政策逆周期调节工具,加快补短板惠民生重大项目建设,扩大有效投资,开展多元化贸易投资合作。(完)

https://cn.reuters.com/article/china-q3-gdp-record-low-pressure-1018-idCNKBS1WX0G1

Friday, October 11, 2019

[明報], 陳茂波:立法會復會後 將提出為中小企借貸擔保九成

財政司長陳茂波下午見記者,表示立法會下周三(16日)復會後,政府將提出新計劃,擬為中小企借貸作九成擔保,讓中小企有需要時可更易向銀行借錢,紓緩目前經濟不景下的周轉困難。

立法會財委會今早(10日)開會3個多小時,仍未能選出主席。被問到會否擔心需要立法會審議的方案效率受影響,陳茂波指出,政府必須獲立法會同意撥款,才可推出相關計劃,「不可以跳過這步」,他相信議員明白現時經濟情況,政府會盡力游說支持,現在「幫中小企、保就業是社會上大家最想做到的事」。

港鐵車站若關閉 按比例退租
陳茂波表示,零售業因近期社會狀況遭受沉重打擊,政府已推動公營機構配合協助中小企,港鐵對受影響較大的商戶提供租金調整方案,若車站被迫關閉,會按比例退還租金;機管局亦研究對租戶提供租金援助。陳又稱,領展會收集旗下商場租戶因公眾活動而暫停營業的資料,以制定援助方案;呼籲其他私人物業業主及發展商,積極考慮推出租金減免措施協助租戶。

不回應「港人港樓」傳聞
早前有報道稱政府正研究推出「港人港樓」措施,規定新建私樓只能售予香港人,陳茂波稱不回應傳聞,僅表示下周三特首林鄭月娥發表《施政報告》中,其中一項主要內容有關土地房屋,屆時會有更多詳情。

https://news.mingpao.com/ins/%E9%80%83%E7%8A%AF%E6%A2%9D%E4%BE%8B/article/20191011/special/1570777073581

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

[BBC] Thomas Cook customers in shock over flight prices

Thomas Cook customers have accused airlines of cashing in on the holiday firm's demise after being faced with high bills to book replacement flights.

People who booked flights with the company, now trying to find replacement deals, told the BBC that in some cases prices for the flights have tripled.

Holidaymaker Angela Mills said a flight from Glasgow to Rhodes, Greece, was £280 on Sunday, but was now £1,000.

Analysts said the prices reflected high demand on routes with few spare seats.

"People aren't sitting there rubbing their hands with glee. If sales come in rapidly on popular routes then prices go up," said John Strickland, an airline analyst at JLS Consulting.

Mr Strickland said September was a popular time for people to take holidays outside the peak school holiday period and many flights were already very full.

He said the airlines could decide to halt price increases, but said firms had to be commercially driven.

Live: Latest updates as holidaymakers are flown home
Thomas Cook bosses face scrutiny over collapse
Thomas Cook: Your questions answered
'The staff were crying and very sombre'
What went wrong at Thomas Cook?
"Thomas Cook has failed because it had massive debts and it was making a loss. It's a fragile industry. More than a dozen airlines have gone bust.

"If the airlines don't make profits where they can on a minority of flights then they don't stand a chance of surviving."

How is the repatriation effort going?
Meanwhile, Dame Deirdre Hutton, chairwoman of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), described stage one of the repatriation of holidaymakers on Monday as "a pretty good day for a first day".

She told BBC 5 Live's Wake Up to Money: "We ran 64 flights, we brought back just under 15,000 people. That was over 90% of those we intended to bring back.

"I'm conscious that we've got a huge job to do still, because that's about 8% of the total, but a reasonable start.

"We've got 74 flights today and are hoping to bring back 16,500 people, but (have) 13 days to go and 135,000 passengers still to bring back.

"The cost split is 60% Atol and 40% non-Atol."

Dame Deirdre added that she wanted to emphasise: "Nobody is stranded, everybody will get their holiday and they will be brought back at the time they would have come back anyway."

What sort of price rises are people experiencing?
Holidaymaker Mrs Mills said the increases were bad for travellers already in "a state of shock".

She was due to fly from Glasgow to Rhodes on Wednesday on Thomas Cook flights. When she looked for alternatives after the travel firm's collapse, the cheapest price she could find for replacement flights for her and her husband was more than £1,000.

The company she booked her accommodation through - Jetline Holidays - eventually found her an alternative deal costing £600 extra.

But she will now have to fly from Edinburgh, and on her return spend a night in Prague before flying back from there.

Mrs Mills said she hoped to claim the additional cost of the flights from her travel insurance on her return.

What are my rights?

Anyone who has bought a future package holiday with Thomas Cook is covered by the Air Travel Organiser's Licence scheme (Atol). This means they will not be going away, but the cost of the holiday will be refunded.

However, Atol protection does not cover flight-only deals. The main alternative for travellers is to claim a refund from the provider of the credit or debit card they used, or make a claim on their travel insurance.

What are your rights? Read more here

Kevin Spence was due to go to Florida next year in June with his family - a trip which had taken two years to plan and save up for.

But he said between checking flight prices just before Thomas Cook collapsed on Sunday and the following morning they had risen sharply.

Original flight costs of £1,800 for his family of four had now gone up to £2,500, he said.

"I'm devastated.

"The cost of the holiday is now pushing up past our budget. I'm now in a position where I might need to cancel it altogether," he said.

However, Nigel Wilson said he had managed to beat the price increases by booking new flights for his holiday from Manchester to Marrakech at 12.30am BST on Monday morning.

The flights for his family of four cost him an additional £640, but he said when he checked prices later on Monday, the cost had risen to £1,500.

"If we had waited we wouldn't have had the funds to book more tickets at that price," he said.