More than three years after the referendum and with just over two weeks until the October 31 Brexit deadline, discussions have boiled down to customs.
The plan being thrashed out is understood to be a version of the partnership mooted by Theresa May as prime minister. Under one version, all goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain would pay EU customs duties. But if those goods then ended up being sold in Northern Ireland — that is, staying there rather than being exported on in some form to the EU — the importer could claim the duty back from the UK government. It would mean Northern Ireland remaining in the UK customs territory but with extra administrative burdens to avoid undermining the integrity of the EU customs union.
The other big remaining issue is consent. Boris Johnson’s plan to replace the backstop, revealed this month, would have needed approval every four years via a “double lock” of support from the nationalist and unionist parties in Northern Ireland. Dublin, Brussels and most Northern Irish parties were unhappy with that.
What do conservative eurosceptics think?
The revival of the customs partnership presents significant hurdles, both in negotiations with Brussels and domestically.
Tory Eurosceptics, including Mr Johnson, were highly critical of the plans for a customs partnership when they were floated by Mrs May. Mr Johnson himself warned that they would impinge on Britain’s ability to sign free-trade deals with the EU. Jacob Rees-Mogg, then leader of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs and now leader of the Commons, said they were “cretinous”.
A partnership might also require Mr Johnson to repeal an amendment to trade legislation made by Brexiteer MPs that forbade HM Revenue and Customs from collecting revenue on behalf of another country.
So will they oppose it?
Not necessarily. Firstly, many Tory Eurosceptics who implacably opposed the first customs partnership and then voted against Mrs May’s deal at least once are now in the government.
The difference, according to Mr Rees-Mogg, is twofold. First, he argues that the prime minister is a Brexiteer who can be trusted. If you don’t like the message, he implies, trust the messenger himself.
The second, he says, is that parliament is now “desperate” for a deal. Many of those MPs with reservations are exercised by the idea of Brexit dragging past October 31 or not happening at all.
Analysis by The Times this month found that a deal could pass even if ten hardline Tory “spartans” withheld their support. But that could require support from the ten Democratic Unionist Party MPs to get to a majority and to encourage further Tory holdouts to back it.
Where does the DUP stand?
Arlene Foster’s reaction to the plans on customs and consent will be crucial.
On customs, the DUP says it exists to protect the Union, and entering a different customs territory would weaken it.
On consent, it will insist Northern Ireland cannot follow rules over which it has no say. The initial plan gave the Stormont assembly and Northern Ireland executive an approval role. This led to accusations of a DUP veto. The UK has insisted it can be flexible and has floated the possibility of a consent referendum.
What does the EU want?
Brussels is driven by protecting the integrity of its single market while preventing the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But should Mr Johnson have come up with a plan that the Irish government supports, it would be hard for the European Commission or member states to object.
On consent, Dublin and Brussels would be exasperated by the possibility that the DUP could in effect wield a continuing veto.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/final-roadblocks-on-the-path-to-an-elusive-brexit-agreement-9pllvgm0q
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