Boris Johnson’s chances of a new Brexit deal were hanging by a thread last night after EU leaders withheld approval for formal negotiations on his plans for an alternative to the Irish backstop.
The prime minister set out proposals that would in effect keep Northern Ireland in the EU single market for all goods while following UK customs rules. He said the compromise allowed a “meaningful Brexit” without the need for physical checks on the border.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, said that Mr Johnson’s proposals did not “fully meet the agreed objectives” of the original guarantee against a hard border on the island of Ireland but did not reject them entirely.
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, was cool but not dismissive as he said that among “positive advances” there were “problematic points”, including how the arrangements would be policed.
While other EU leaders gave a generally negative reaction, endorsements by the Democratic Unionist Party and the European Research Group of hardline Eurosceptic Tory MPs put Mr Johnson within touching distance of winning Commons approval for the deal if he can get agreement in Brussels.
In his letter to Mr Juncker setting out the proposals, which he called “a fair and decent compromise”, Mr Johnson said that “time is now very short”. He spoke later to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and will call other EU leaders today to sell the deal.
Mr Johnson must now wait for the outcome of talks between EU leaders to know whether they are willing to enter formal negotiations before the European Council meets in a fortnight.
Downing Street figures said that unless negotiators were in the “tunnel” of intensive talks by the weekend there was no prospect of agreement. They said that in that case Mr Johnson may not attend the council meeting, focusing instead on no-deal preparations.
The credibility of Mr Johnson’s threat to take the UK out of the EU without a deal has been damaged by the Benn act, which compels him to seek an extension to Article 50 if he cannot reach a deal acceptable to parliament.
The EU must weigh up the risks associated with entering formal talks over complex new arrangements for the Irish border against the risks of rejecting the proposal. This could result in Mr Johnson winning a general election and returning on a strengthened hard-Brexit mandate. Polls showing that he has a double-digit lead over Labour have increased his leverage in Brussels.
Objections to the plans centred on proposals to test “consent” for EU regulations in Northern Ireland every four years, thought to be a DUP red line. Some also fear that separating customs and regulatory checks will be unworkable, and there is scepticism over Britain’s claims that customs checks will not require additional infrastructure.
Leaders are particularly concerned about giving Stormont a right of consent over entering the new backstop arrangements at the end of the transition. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, warned senior MEPs that the proposals were a “trap” handing the DUP a right to veto the new arrangements. “The EU would then be trapped with no backstop to preserve the single market after Brexit,” he said.
The EU sees the plan as creating a breach in the single market’s integrity by opening the floodgates to smuggling and unregulated imports via Northern Ireland. “This cannot be his last plan,” a source close to the negotiations said. “It is unworkable to disassociate customs from the regulatory regime. There is no point in even considering a time limit on something that is unworkable.”
For now, European negotiators are unwilling to enter technical talks. However, Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, endorsed Mr Johnson’s deal as “sensible and balanced” after her party shifted its red lines over regulatory alignment. The government has offered the DUP funding to boost economic growth.
Hardline Eurosceptics also indicated that they were softening their position. Steve Baker, chairman of the ERG, called Mr Johnson’s plan “fantastic”.
Three Labour MPs also said they were prepared to vote for the deal, despite opposition from Jeremy Corbyn. Mr Johnson would need to win over only 11 Tory rebels or Labour MPs to get his deal through the Commons.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brussels-keeps-johnson-guessing-on-brexit-deal-xzbd275b7
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