[The Times], Is a Brexit deal any closer after the Varadkar meeting?

Why was the meeting important?
Before the talks between Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar yesterday expectations were low to non-existent. The Irish side had only agreed to the meeting because they didn’t want to be blamed for the lack of progress. But after about three hours of discussions, including a 90-minute meeting between the two leaders, the mood music completely changed. For the first time Mr Varadkar said he could see a path to a Brexit deal at next week’s EU summit and a joint statement published afterwards committed both sides to putting the new proposals to Brussels.

Has the UK made a new offer on the Irish backstop?
Yes, although it is unclear exactly what the concessions are. Ahead of the meeting Downing Street is understood to have been looking at proposals in which Northern Ireland would remain in the UK’s customs union and the EU’s customs union.

Under the plan customs checks would take place in the Irish Sea but Northern Ireland would still be able to benefit from UK-wide trade deals under a version of Theresa May’s customs partnership plan.

Mr Johnson is also understood to have made a fresh offer on a consent mechanism that would prevent the DUP from being able to collapse the agreement further down the track. This could involve requiring a majority in the Northern Ireland assembly to vote against the plan in order for it not to take effect.

What will the DUP say?
It depends on the fineprint of any deal. But there are political as well as policy considerations at work. Three things are true. The DUP really does not want a no-deal Brexit. They need to be able to justify any deal to their base. And they realise that a Labour government in place before Brexit could negotiate a softer Brexit than they desire — plus Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. How the DUP responds will be a function of the relative weight the DUP assigns to each of these key issues. It is by no means certain that they will come out against Mr Johnson.

How will the EU react?
Irish officials were briefing Michel Barnier, the chief Brexit negotiator, last night. The strong likelihood is that anything backed in Dublin will satisfy the Commission and the most important member states.

Could he get a deal through the Commons?
It’s hard to tell. When the prime minister addressed the Commons after making his offer to the EU last week he appeared to have, in effect, the entire Conservative Party, including hardliners such as John Redwood and Mark Francois, on his side. The DUP were supportive too. The nature of any concessions he has made will determine whether they stick with him or they feel betrayed by their Brexiteer prime minister and abandon ship.

But it would perhaps be a mistake to assume that DUP opposition would be the end of any new deal. Yes, there were 34 Conservatives who did not vote for Theresa May’s deal even at the third attempt. But three of them are now in the government and would back Mr Johnson’s deal and five are no longer in the party. Of the remaining 26 plenty would be grateful for any element they can cling to as an excuse to back the deal because they simply want this over now.

And while it would be a grave mistake for Mr Johnson to rely on Labour MPs to get him over the line there is evidence that a handful more than the five who backed Mrs May’s third vote would support pretty much any new deal agreed with Brussels.

What’s happening today?
Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, is meeting Mr Barnier to discuss prospects for a Brexit deal at the EU summit next week. Mr Barnier then briefs ambassadors from the 27 EU members on whether to start serious negotiations on a deal.

What happens next?
Negotiations between Britain and the EU are expected to resume in Brussels and could continue through the weekend. The teams are expected to have four days to reach an agreement if it is going to be ratified at the European summit of leaders on Thursday and Friday. If there is a deal it will be done in the early hours of Friday morning.

If there is an agreement what then?
If Mr Johnson can secure a deal he is expected to bring it back to parliament for a vote as early as Saturday October 19. If it passed then the legislation will be brought forward to ratify it in time to leave on October 31. However, if it is defeated, under the terms of the Benn Act the prime minister will be obliged to ask the EU for an extension.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/is-a-brexit-deal-any-closer-after-varadkar-meeting-dwkqk8sv5